iEMSs 2022 Conference - Brussels, Belgium

iEMSs 2022 - Session A.2

Large-scale impact modelling including ISIMIP

Stream    : A - Decision making and public participation in environmental modelling

Session Leader: Wim Thiery1, Jonas Jaegermeyer2,3, Hanner Mueller-Schmied4 1 Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Brussels, Belgium. 2 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NY 3 Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, IL 4 Hydrology group, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Germany

While the need for robust information on the impacts of climate change on various sectors is critical, uncertainties in impact assessments using individual large-scale models may be substantial. As a result, global efforts are shifting towards an intercomparison of large-scale climate impact models for a better understanding of potential uncertainty bounds. The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) is a good example of such an effort and it designs and facilitates cross-sectoral and multi-model intercomparison impact of a 1.5°C and/or a 2°C global warming, as solicited by the IPCC’s special report on this topic and the upcoming sixth Assessment Report.


This session focuses on how climate change impacts are modelled at large world regions (continental to global) and how these impacts can be compared across a range of sectors to capture potential uncertainties. Emphasis is placed on (i) the ability of models to represent observed impacts, (ii) the quantification of uncertainties and understanding of changes in impacts, and (iii) the attribution of the drivers of these changes. We welcome model inter-comparison studies using ISIMIP or other large-scale impact simulations under past, present and/or future climates.